Trade Results

 Buy AUDJPY at 79.60 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 79.35. Our stop goes in at 78.90 and our upside targets are 80.03, and 80.75. We’re in weekly support, at the weekly 5/1 up and 1-1 low, and in monthly furtherout support, and with daily dots swinging and daily nearby support holding, and moving sideways, and so forth. Looks to me like we have a lot of potential upside movement on tap. Even if we’re not up for a resumption of the global risk-on trade (and I am not saying that we are not), a weekly/monthly dot refresh here would be perfectly reasonable. Else why would the daily bars be marching sideways if not to manifest the presence of strong support? We'll find out soon if we're right. Video

Update 5/17/12: AUDJPY A tough trade to handle. We came within three pips of our target and aggressive traders who were aware and nimble might reasonably have exited in that neighborhood. Those who did not however took to the sidelines when the market fell apart in a big way and exited close to a scratch near their original entry at 879.59. The move was violent enough that they hove to safe harbor and did not take the second conservative entry. Conservative traders with their "set it and forget it" rules did not fare so well on this one, and were stopped out later in the day. Video

 Buy USDJPY just above the Envelope Top and 6/5 at 80.20 (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 80.03 just above the daily dot. Our stop goes in at 79.69, and our upside targets are 80.43, 80.61, and 80.91. We're seeing what I believe to be the slow and steady start to an up-move that could be protracted. Let's see if we can get aboard successfully. Video

Update 5/17/12: USDJPY A pretty dramatic move against our position washed all the good progress of the last two days away in a heartbeat -- something all traders experience and fret about. Our aggressive traders saw what was happening, that the move to target was over, and as as prices started to erode and applied our "three bars against the trade" rule and jumped ship as price moved below the weekly live PLDot, exiting at 80.17 for a loss that was small enough to be called a scratch. Conservative traders were not in this trade, and relieved to be on the sidelines. Video Update 5/16/12: USDJPY Hold long. We did hit our first target today and so aggressive traders might have taken profits then but I am holding long and looking for further gains as time moves forward. Move stop to 79.93 and targets at 80.59, and 80.74, thereafter 81.25.

 Sell @US at 146'180 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 146'230. Stop gos in at 146'290 and our targets on the downside are 145'100, 145'030, 144'200. We're at the cutting edge of global "flight to quality" here in the bonds and the markets are highly volatile and unpredictable, so this trade carries more than the usual risk. Still, we do see an exhaust into the weekly 5/2 down, and the monthly in further out approaching the quarterly envelope top, and we have moved three full handles on three days. But, no guarantees since we're standing in front of a train, or so it seems. A case can be made for the T-Bond top not coming until the low 150's but it is anybody's guess. In any case we'll take a stab at the exhaust that we believe is forming here. Video NOTE: at one point in the video tonight I misspoke and said "buy" when I should of course have said "sell." The written comments are correct.

Update 5/15/12: @US This trade is a scratch; exit at 146'180 or better. Aggressive traders got filled at a good price and the trade worked for us most of the day but the market anxiety as expressed in this "flight to quality" trade is not yet ready to melt. The exhaust pattern is holding but our exhaust retracement today was only to the envelope top and at the end of the day we see a C-Wave continuing. Our anticipated short trade will happen, but...not just yet. Exit for a scratch, at or about 146'180.

 Buy USDJPY at 79.88, just off the 6/5 (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at the daily dot/1-1 low area at 79.78. Stop goes in at 79.45 and our targets are 80.16, 80.35, 80.47 and 80.87. All markets seem scared to death these days but in relative flight-to-quality terms the dollar holds its own against the yen. Indeed I would not be surprised to see the yen fall to pieces one of these days as well. Video

Update 5/14/12: USDJPY A highly volatile day with swings back and forth but we hit our numbers. Aggressive traders went long and took profits at the first target and then near midday got another chance to take a small bite when price retraced and both aggressive and conservative traders took a new position. We're out at the close however; this market is very volatile and I want to make sure the picture is clear before re-setting my long.

 Sell USDCAD at 1.0028 (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 1.0040, with a stop at 1.0065 and downside targets at 1.0003, .9989. and .9976. We're at pretty strong-looking monthly resistance, the daily nearby resistance zones are going sideways, daily dots are swinging, and a weekly exhaust into HTP resistance is forming. All this says we're getting ready for a down move. We'll find out very quickly if that is the case. Video

Update 5/11/12: USDCAD A correct call and the market acted as expected. Both conservative and aggressive traders were filled, and all three targets were hit. Both traders are out at the third target, but in both cases I hope traders listened to my video comments about the ultimate target and hung in there. Target for congestion entrance bar would have/could have/should have been better stated as "two-to-three-PLDots back" in any case (third dot back is 0.9950, thus target should have been .9955 or so), which would have been the correct exit. But for our track record purposes, and to be consistent, we're out at our third target of .9976 and standing aside. Traders should look to sell resistance in the days to come.

 Buy @ES at 1345 (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 1340.75; our stop goes in at 1334.25 below the weekly 1-1 low. The E-Mini looks weak but on the other hand we see sharp rallies off the lows on the hourly chart and the daily dot is swinging and there are all the other technical items mentioned yesterday. Basically we're re-setting lower for a ping trade and the targets thus are 1355, 1360, and 1371. Video

Update 5/10/12: @ES We missed the aggressive trader's entry by 3/4th of a point, but the direction was right and so we have a directional trade. Our trader entered at 1349.25 when it was clear the stated entry was missed and direction was established; we exited at the second target of 1360. Video

 Buy @ES on a dip to 1352 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 1347. Our stop goes in at 1340 and targets are 1370 and then the monthly PLD/LPLD area at 1376. Daily dots are swinging and daily support is holding, and so we have a shot at this. In addition we see weekly 6/1u, 1-1L, and monthly live ebot all in support and holding. Video

Update 5/9/12: @ES Sort of a mixed bag. Our conservative trader hit the stop and is out; our aggressive trader picked up a second contract but also correctly saw (because he was able to monitor) that the stop being hit was just a momentary "poke" through that price level and that the support actually held, so he hung in with the hope of a major reversal. That reversal may in fact still be in the making but has not yet materialized and so the aggressive trader exited at the close with a small win. He is interested in resetting at a lower level for a ping trade.

 Buy @ES at market (currently 1365) (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 1358. Stop goes in below the 1-1 Low at 1348. Targets are 1372, 1378, 1384 and eventually 1390. Big moves over the weekend but it looks as if the worst of the damage has been done; we saw a steady recovery today and the e-mini closed pretty well all things considered. Video

Update 5/8/12: @ES The trade concept looks like it is still valid but as we know in the market you can be right in the long term and it still takes your money. Our stop was hit and we're out. Aggressive traders picked up a second contract at the conservative entry point but dumped it at 1357 for a scratch as the market crashed back to that entry point, leaving aggressive traders with their one contract.

 Buy @CL at 98.06 (aggressive traders), which is just off daily nearby support, or more conservatively buy at 97.43 is more deeply in support, with a stop at 96.42 under the 1-1 low. Targets are 99.20, 100.00, and 100.80. Let's see if we can take a bite out of the PLDot refresh move on the daily and weekly. We have certainly hit key support levels on both time periods. Video

Update 5/7/12: @CL Nothing good about this trade, we took it in the ear and were taken out in the early going as our stops were hit. One would have thought that the election news from France and Greece would have been anticipated as the pre-voting polls were pretty clear and the actual outcomes in line with the forecasts. But if one thought that, one was wrong, and the market reacted vehemently and violently to the reality of the election returns. Oil sold off aggressively, stopping at a logical support level and then retracing (as we expected) and one could perhaps say the short-term bottom is either in or approaching. But in any case it matters not. Mr. Market picked our pocket on this one. Both the aggressive trader and the conservative trader got hit, with the sole silver lining being that the aggressive trader saw what was occurring and did not double up with the conservative position as well.

 Buy USDCAD on open or at market, currently .9885 (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at .9869. Stop goes in at .9835 and targets are .9905, .9926. and .9969. Traders should be aware of the market-moving potential of the non-farm payrolls report tomorrow at 8:30 ET as any trade taken in the face of the monthly BLS employment numbers is a bit risky. Video

Update 5/4/12: USDCAD Exit on close. Both aggressive and conservative traders were filled, and we came close to our third target, missing by only a few ticks. There is more to the upside here but I would exit here and re-set my long at a lower price. Not bad for a day's work; we book good profits.

 Sell EURUSD at 1.3210 (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 1.3237. Our stop goes in at 1.3285 and our targets are 1.3112, 1.3077, and thereafter 1.3025. Things are looking gloomy as we run up to the employment report on Friday but across the pond in Europe things look darker still. Can we go wrong betting against the euro? We'll find out soon enough. Video Bonus Trades: Note that corn started its refresh move from its exhaust upwards of a few days ago as anticipated in our call of 4/27; a volatile and somewhat dangerous market but some of our more robust traders might be aboard this one. Target would be the weekly PLDot an then then weekly PL Ebot. Where did our very strong traders get short? Somewhere between 626 and 634, if you're keeping score take the mid-point.

Update 5/3/12: EURUSD No Trade, entries not hit. Update 5/3/12: BONUS trade from 4/27 - @C Exit Corn at market (currently 612.5). I'm not seeing the anticipated weakness continue and so will take profits on this bonus trade and move on. This trade was mentioned 4/27, entered on 5/1, and exited on 5/3, and is added to our bonus track record today.

 Buy @CL at 105.60, which is just above the daily 6/5 (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 105.10. Our stop goes in at 104.90 and the targets are 106.52 and 107.50. We've been watching Crude Oil as the US WTI variety is gaining strength, and have done well with our two bonus trades. (Among other evidence the WTI contango is narrowing, a sign of increasing demand.) Now we look to get aboard this fresh new trend using the Sure-Foot Trade technique of buying a retracement to the weekly ETop level. Video
BONUS TRADES: We're also looking at selling @US just below the daily PLDot, looking for more downside with targets as given in the recent recommendation. Furthermore, we're also looking at buying the USDJPY again as we see incipient signs of dollar strength here, dots swinging, etc. Buy at 79.84, stop below nearby daily support.

Update 5/3/12: @CL I was clearly wrong on this one. Stopped out on the strong downside move. Seems I might have been trading on hope, always a bad idea. Update 5/2/12: @CL Hold Long. This is a close call and many traders may wish to exit at a scratch here (conservative traders have a small win, aggressive traders are at a scratch) but we're players and I like the action in Crude as it battles on upward in the face of a stronger dollar. Markets that don't crash under these conditions have underlying strength. (See how much worse EURUSD did today, for example.) Naturally I can be wrong but I see support on balance stronger than resistance. Update 5/2/12: Bonus Trades No trade in the USDJPY. And no trade in the @US either though I thought for a moment that there was when I looked at the range of the daily bar at day's end. Oh well, tomorrow's another day.

 Buy USDCAD at .9850 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at .9825. Stop goes in at .9812 and our first target is .9913, second target is .9985, and then 1.0025. I see bottoming action here, daily nearby support moving sideways and then rising. Dollar strength ahead? Video

Update 5/2/12: USDCAD We hit our revised target and are out at .9897. We're standing aside fro TR purposes but traders might consider "pinging" this market and taking bites out each day, buying in support and selling in resistance as the USDCAD makes its turn to the upside. Update 5/1/12: USDCAD Hold long. Aggressive traders are filled and support is holding, thus so far so good. Move first target to .9897, let other targets and stop stand as is.

 Sell @US at 142'230 (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 143'030. Our stop goes in at 143'110 and our targets remain similar to what they were on Friday: 141'280, 141'040 , and 140'130. We saw a classic exhaust on Friday and that is yet another topping sign up here where the air is thin. Is it in fact a top? Well I guess we'll find out. Video
Bonus trade ideas: @ES is setting up a test of the earlier PLdot crest and that would be an interesting sale for aggressive and aware traders. Also I am looking at @CL from the long side, probably the move there would be to buy just above the monthly PLdot. And finally: it is a bit tricky as the evidence is not all in but Corn had a great day today and is therefore in a resistance area, again testing a crest; one might watch this carefully for a shorting possibility. However be careful of this one, it is for experienced and well capitalized traders only.

Update 5/1/12: BONUS Trades @ES trade scratched though alert traders could have booked good profits. @CL however performed precisely as expected; Our aggressive traders got long just above at key support (104.62) near the PLDot) and rode it to the close, and are out at 105.97, for a bonus-trade profit of $1,350. This adds to our profit of $770 yesterday for a total of $2,120. @C had an inside day and is closing almost inside the envelope, thus we monitor it closely. Update 4/30/12: @US Aggressive traders are in the trade, but not going anywhere; conservative traders were not filled. Traders in love with risk can stay aboard this trade and play for the downside, but for track record purposes I take our exit here at an almost-scratch and will look for an opportunity to reset my short when the picture is clearer. Sort of a close call though. Update 4/30/12: BONUS TRADES @ES performed as expected, A non-official trade but I got short at 1402 and look for more weakness to come. Stop is at breakeven. @CL performed as expected, and aggressive traders in this bonus trade got long at the monthly PLDot at 104.12; I see more strength ahead but in this slow moving bullish flow choose to take profits here and would look to reset my long at a lower price for another bite out of this apple.

 Sell @US at 142'090 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 142'190. I see this longer-term monthly congestion continuing and although I do recognize that I have a directional bias in the Treasury market (always a dangerous psychological state) it does seem to me that we're in resistance and the next move should be down again. Stop goes in at 143'000 and the targets are 141'200, 141'030 off the 5/9, and 140'130. Video

Update 4/27/12: @US Now that was a trade with a bit of excitement. The market reacted to some Spanish ratings nonsense and rallied from the opening straight on up through the top, and way way beyond, hitting the 5/2 extension before starting a long steady retracement. This is a classic exhaust pattern, and those aggressive traders who were awake and alert could have traded this very profitably. In fact we're going to give it another shot on Sunday night/Monday. See the movie for some trading wrinkles and observations. Video

 Buy AUDJPY at the open or market -- currently 84.29 --(aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 84.00. Stop goes in at 83.75 and the targets are 84.65 and 85.01, then 85.70. What's changed? A resounding "Yes" vote from Chinese consumers via Apple sales figures for one thing, and general good economic news from down under as well. Is this the big turn? We'll see... Video

Update 4/26/12: AUDJPY We were stopped out on a sudden reversal. My bad for the too-close stop placement, it should have been below the 5/9 (see the closing comment movie). That goes in the books as a trading error. I'm still bullish on this market, though events are certainly not making it easy for use these days. Video

 Buy (Yes that's BUY) EURUSD at the open (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 1.3162 off the 1-1 low. Stop goes in at 1.3128 and the upside targets are at 1.3255 and then 1.3326. (Apologies for earlier typo). First we're playing for a completion of the weekly cycle to the top of the congestion and then for an upside breakout. The latter is less than likely but then again ya never know. Video
Some additional trade ideas tonight: sell @US, buy the @ES, and sell the AUDJPY. Just for your consideration . . . .

Update 4/26/12: EURUSD OK we hit our revised target and are out. I think there is still some oomph in this trade for those who want to play further but for our Track Record purposes we're out and book the profit. Update 4/25/12: EURUSD So far so good. Hold for target but move first target to 1.3250, beneath the 5/2. Stop can be moved to 1.3170. Update 4/25/12: Bonus Trades Those who played the extra-credit trades in @ES and @US last night did very well, though one had to be nimble enough to exit the Bonds in the neighborhood of the 5/9. Good, profitable trades though. We'll not add them to the TR since we didn't give detailed stop and target guidance.

 Sell USDJPY at the open (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 81.32 just off the live dot. Targets are 80.94, 80.63, and then 80.15 should we get that far, as we head down towards the weekly 5/2. Stop goes in at 81.58, above the 1-1 high. Someday the world will feel good about itself again, but for the moment we go with the flow of yen strength. Video

Update 4/24/12: USDJPY A successful trade but a tiny win. Aggressive traders got in at the open and were out at first target. Conservative traders were not not filled. But we're not arguing, even a scratch is as good as a win, or so we used to say in the pits in Chicago.

 Buy AUDJPY at the open on Sunday (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 84.35 at the PLDot. Our stop goes in at 83.83 and the first target is 85.42 just under the 5/9, and then 86.01 under the weekly ETop. Ultimately we shoot for 90.00 and higher. Video

Update 4/23/12: AUDJPY Well this did NOT work out. Some big bank says China is not as strong as it might be and the world flip-flops -- as if eight percent growth is in any way, shape, or form "weak". Well no matter, we take the loss and move on. Aggressive traders scrambled to the sidelines and conservative traders took it in the neck. On we go. But note well: the yen will crumble later this year, I do believe it will. Video

 Sell @ES at market which is 1373 or better(aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 1383 closer to the 1-1 high. Stop goes in at 1391 and targets are 1364, and 1359, and ultimately 1342. A choppy market these days but not one showing a lot of strength. Video

Update 4/20/12: @ES Both conservative and aggressive traders got aboard but today was not a big day, and we close near the entrance, almost a scratch. We exit on close for a small win. This market still looks bearish to me but the weakness is not compelling enough to keep me aboard. For Track Record purposes we exit on close or on the Sunday night open, and will re-assess a short position next week

 Buy USDJPY at the open which is currently at 81.27 (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 80.93. Stop goes in at 80.69 below the 5/9. First, second and third targets are at 81.90, 82.14, and 82.63 respectively. We're seeing it happen, the dollar strength/yes weakness that we have been waiting for. Now softly softly catch the monkey... Video Also of interest tonight: @ES and @US, both from the short side.

Update 4/20/12: USDJPY We came within three pips of our target, then price fell off into the close. I'm still bullish on this market but will stand aside for the moment, given that the close is so very close to moving inside the daily envelope. We can't rule out a bigger retracement and so we're out for the moment with a small win and will reassess. Update 4/19/12: USDJPY We're seeing good constructive progress so far and I think we'll reach our target, but do move target down to 81.80, under the 5/2. Move stop to breakeven.

 Sell EURUSD at 1.3125 (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 1.3164 under the 1-1 high. Stop goes above resistance at 1.3201, and targets are 1.3087, then 1.3041, and then 1.3003 just off the bottom confine of congestion, the dotted line. Europe is at it again, this time it is Spain where the rain is falling. Video

Update 4/18/12: EURUSD Not a big trade but I long ago learned not to sniff at modest wins; in my view, any win is is a victory in the trading arena. Our conservative entry was not filled; aggressive traders were filled however and we hit our first target effortlessly and are out at that level. Nimble aggressive traders might have harvested additional wins as price dipped close to our second target, but for track record purposes we're out and put this modest profit in the bank.

 Sell USDCAD at .9996 (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 1.0012, just under the envelope top. Stop goes in at 1.0027 and the first target is .9954 and thereafter .9919. Some good reasons why this might work out well, the primary one being the repeated failure of rally attempts at the weekly envelope top. Methinks we may be seeing the beginnings of a renewed dollar weakness relative to the commodity dollars, i.e. Canada and Australia. Video

Update 4/17/12: USDCAD Excellent day. Conservative traders wept as their "set-it-and-forget-it" trading order missed their entrance by ONE TICK! Aggressive traders, however, who are endowed with both courage and skill, got short near the conservative entry as well as their own aggressive entry and rode these two contracts down through our first and second targets, exiting as the flow shifted near the bottom when it was clear this move was over, not quite reaching our third target. Lots of action today, and we book good profits. Video

 Sell @US at 141'300 (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 142'020, with a stop at 142'100. We saw a powerful rally today off of the China news but it stopped at the 5/9, breaking by a tick or two on close. To my thinking we will see congestion action on Monday but these days in light of global uncertainty it is far from certain, so the stop is fairly tight. Targets are the other side of congestion of course, with the first target just off the 1-1 low and PLDot at 140'30, and thereafter at 140'120 off the envelope bottom. Video

Update 4/16/12: @US A close call but I think the better part of valor is to take profits at exit. Stout-hearted traders who can monitor the market might well stay aboard to see how this weakness develops as the downside targets in the 30-year bond are rich indeed, generally speaking. But I am wary and smell a rat in that we did not break the 6/5 on close, and thus think it better for track record purposes where we have but one decision a day to bank the profit and look to re-short in the coming day or days. Those who can monitor, have at it!

 Buy AUDJPY at 84.26 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 83.90 off the 6/5; stop goes in at 83.40 and the targets at 85.28 and 85.73. We're seeing strength in the Australian dollar due to good employment numbers there and weakness in the Yen across the board as well, and the reversal is both welcome and definitive. Some chance that we will be in congestion here for a while so watch the flow; on the other hand there is also a chance we'll see a runaway up-trend and have to scramble to get aboard. So be alert. Video Bonus trades: Things are starting to move in a "risk-on" sort of way and so traders might consider selling the USDCAD on any rally, say at 0.9967 (the Envelope bottom) or a touch higher at the 6/5. And as mentioned in the closing trade comment for yesterday, @US can be sold at tomorrow's 6/5 with the target a full handle lower. Crude oil and Gold are enticing from the long side, as is @ES if bought on a significant intraday dip. Have fun folks and good trading!

Update 4/13/12: AUDJPY This trade is not going anywhere; all lights were green until the weak Chinese GDP at 10:00 p.m. US time, 10:00 a.m. China time, then a choppy day ensued, to our detriment, playing out on both sides of the profit/loss line for us during the day. I'm still bullish on this market but the better part of valor is to stand aside and see how things develop. So we take our small loss and hie to the sidelines.

 Sell @US at 140'250 (aggressive traders )which is just off the daily PLDot; more conservative folk will look to enter short at 141'060, at the 6/1 down. Target is 140'100 and then 139'200; the stop goes in at 141'160. We at the top of the range in bonds and have seen repeated down-cycles start from this area. That's what we're looking for, and now we shall see if we get it. Note the Monthly PLDot area. Video

Update 4/12/12: @US Aggressive traders were filled and we hit our first target; we're out and bank the profits. This is not the largest trade we've ever seen but odds are we could be in congestion here a bit before heading lower. Those so inclined might look to get short again at the 6/5-to-PLDot area (140'20 to 140'28 range) and keep the downside targets of 140'010 and 139'220. Me thinks we're going lower but for Track Record purposes we're out of the trade today.

 Buy USDJPY just off the 1-1 low at 80.34 or better (aggressive traders) and conservative traders could give it a shot at just off the 5/2 at 80.16 with a stop for both at 80.00. Targets would be 81.33 and then 81.85. This is a ping trade, and we're looking for this relentless Yen strength of late to come to an end. It's almost 15 days since the previous trend run high of 84.09 and we're getting down into the Monthly dot area around 80.00. One of these days we gotta see a reaction to this monthly support. Right? Video

Update 4/11/12: USDJPY No trade today. Our entrance points were not hit and although the direction was correct the flow was not strongly directional enough for aggressive traders to take a directional trade: too choppy. The tide is shifting though, clearly so.

 Buy @CL at 102.25 or better (aggressive traders), or more conservatively at 101.68 or better, with a stop at 101.25. Our first target is 103.02, second target 104.71. On the plus side we have dots swinging, and the price locating in daily, weekly support, nearby's going sideways, and so forth, plus recent history of two significant bounces out of support. Not perfectly certain (and what ever is, we ask?) but pretty interesting nevertheless. Video

Update 4/10/12: @CL Aggressive traders were long and conservative traders just missed getting long before the drive towards the target; but that drive fell a tad short; when the market crashed down at 11:00 a.m. ET, aggressive traders could see the game was up and exited at 101.70. Our conservative traders, however, with the "set it and forget it" constraint, took it in the neck and accrued the loss when our stop was hit. Video

 Sell @US at the bottom of nearby resistance at 140'150 (aggressive traders) or more conservatively just off the 1/1 high at 140'290. Stop goes above the nearby resistance at 141.050 and the targets on the downside at at 139'140 and 138'260. We had a very strong upside day Friday and are playing the developing exhaust pattern now, obviously, as price stops in the daily 5/2, weekly 5/2 and in weekly upcoming resistance. We want nearby resistance to hold on Monday, and that is what we watch for. The shortened trading day on Friday and the thin holiday trading volume eat away at the evidence for this trade, however, and so it is by no means a slam-dunk. Video

Update 4/10/12: @us Aggressive traders took a flow-based exit at the end of the 9:00 a.m. ET hourly bar at 140'200, when it became clear that this trade was leading to tears and that a win was not in the cards. Keep watch though, another good short is developing up in these neighborhoods. Video Update 4/9/12: @US Hold short. We have not see the anticipated strong down move but on the other hand the classic exhaust pattern is present, and we're a couple of ticks to the good in the trade. I would say that aggressive traders only hang tight, conservative traders should drop the idea and look to trade another day. Aggressive traders keep the stop in place but monitor flow closely as this is certainly no slam-dunk trade.

 Buy USDJPY at the open or at the current price of 82.35 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 82.09. Our stop goes at 81.49 and our first target is 82.81 and then 83.75. I'm generally bullish on the dollar but do note that tomorrow could bring considerably volatility around the always-influential Non-Farm Payrolls Report, released at 8:30 a.m. ET on the first Friday of every month (forewarned is forearmed, right?). On top of that the US Futures markets are closed on Good Friday. We'll thus take our trade today in the Dollar-Yen Forex cross as the foreign currency inter-bank market runs 24-hours a day and is global in nature and never so much as blinks for the holiday of any nation. Video

Update 4/6/12: USDJPY Our stop was hit a couple of minutes after the universally-unexpected weakness in the non-farm payrolls report hit the wires. Just goes to show you the dangers of trading on the day of this market-moving "Mother of All Reports". All expectations of recovery to the contrary, this month the employment survey tells a different tale. So that's that. We take our lumps and move on.

 Sell @ES 1394 (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 1399 just under the 6/5. We're working on weekly congestion entrance down, and the signs are lining up nicely. Support at the 1/1 low is at 1385 and so that's the first target; next target is 1381.50 near the weekly envelope bottom. The counter argument is daily kicks back up into congestion action but I go with the downside potential here since we've had such a loooong weekly trend run up. Stop goes above the nearby resistance at 1407. Video

Update 4/5/12: @ES Aggressive traders were filled and then took profits at our first target of 1385; This was a bit of a choppy day ahead of the monthly Non-Farm payrolls report and the long US holiday weekend. A modest win but we're happy to have it and exit the trade with a smile.

 Sell EURUSD at the open, currently 1.3234 or better (aggressive traders) or ore conservatively at the 6/5 which is 1.3255 or better. Stop goes in at 1.3335, and targets are 1.3179 and 1.3174, just off the 1-1 low and daily 5/2 and weekly EBot respectively. In the big picture we're looking for a move to the Monthly and Quarterly envelope bottoms. Video

Update 4/4/12: EURUSD Aggressive traders got aboard and out at second target. A good trade and we should be happy about it and in fact we are that, but I do wish that I had set a more aggressive target as there was and is clearly more in this trade. We'll look for another opportunity to get short on the way towards the Monthly Envelope bottom.

 Buy USDJPY at the open or shortly thereafter (aggressive traders) which at this writing is trading at 82.06; conservative traders look to buy at a better price of 81.75 or better. Our first target is just off the daily PLDot at 82.41 and then just off the weekly PLDot at 82.81. Stop goes in at 81.51. We saw a surprisingly strong reversal today to slam this market back into congestion; if congestion be the game then we're going back up again. If we're wrong we'll see a much deeper retracement in the form of a monthly PLdot refresh. Video

Update 4/3/12: USDJPY We got very lucky on this one as we came within a few pips of being stopped out but that did not occur and the trade was intact when the Fed minutes were announced and the market took off to the upside, blowing through our first target like a knife through butter and hitting our second target cleanly. Both aggressive and conservative traders did well. We're out, money in the bank and smiling.

 Sell @US at 137'300 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively up near the daily PLDot at 138'080. Stop goes above the 1-1 high and envelope top at 139'010 and first target is 137'000 off the 5/2u. Further target would be 135'31 in the neighborhood of the 5/9u and the weekly envelope bottom. Video

Update 4/3/12:@US Wow, talk about annoying. We hit our revised stop and conservative traders are out there; aggressive traders were out on a flow-based stop after three bars of adverse flow and breaking the PLDot, out at 138'100. Modest losses for both. BUT, the market did reverse suddenly and had we held firmly to our original trade plan we could have booked a couple of significant wins here. Such is life; we can't always be right, and hindsight is 20-20. So, no regrets, we move on and stay on alert for the next trade. Update 4/2/12: @US Hold Short. We had a volatile day and both aggressive and conservative traders are filled and aboard this trade. Move stop to 138'240 and move first target to 137'090, keeping second target as is. I'm a touch more cautious here due to the unexpected strength of today's bounce.

 Buy USDJPY at 82.42 OR BETTER which is current market (aggressive traders) or more conservatively just north of the 1-1 low 82.07; stop goes below support at 81.75. Targets are first the 5/9d at 82.97, then 83.70, but really we are looking at the long-term potential here and trying to shoot for the heavens, maybe the yen at par (100.00). Well, stranger things have happened. But first we just have to get our short-term swing trade successfully established. Video

Update 4/2/12: USDJPY An unexpectedly strong China Supply Manager's report over the weekend led us to some windfall profits on both the conservative and aggressive traders who both exited shortly after the open Sunday night on the basis of reaching the 5/9d area mentioned as a target. When flow shifted we were out. The accounting is a bit muddied due to some sloppiness on my part in detailing the price levels but the movies were clear enough. When the market gives us an unexpected gap opening at our target level, we have no choice but to take it. In this case it worked out nicely. Update 3/30/12: USDJPY Hold Long. We got a nice turnaround as predicted today and both conservative and aggressive traders are aboard. We're short of the first target but that does not bother me and I am inclined to hold for more gains in the week to come. Conservative traders can take profits on the open Sunday if they ar0 itchy to ring the cash register but for the purposes of the Track Record I am holding both positions long.

 Sell EURUSD Forex at the open (aggressive traders) which is about 1.3315 as I write. Conservative traders look to get short up much closer to the 1-1 high and 6/1 down at 1.3356. Our stop goes in above the envelope top top at 1.3390 and our targets are 1.3247, 1.3212, and 1.3180 near the weekly PLDot. Video

Update 3/30/12: EURUSD Unfortunately we were quite wrong about the market on this one and it continued to cycle back up. Aggressive traders got out on a flow-based exit after four hourly bars of strong unambiguous flow against the trade, exiting at 1.3341; the telling action was the strength with which it broke the daily PLDot. Sort of bad trading practice on my art, to let a profit turn into a loss. We try to avoid that sort of thing. Video Update 3/29/12:EURUSD Hold short, set new target to just above tomorrow's 5/2 up at 1.3236. Not all that gratifying to see us miss a target by a small amount today, but the chart is still bearish and no reason to get out now. Stop can be a bit tighter if you like, above the 1-1 high and ETop at 1.3362. Video

 Buy @GC at the open (aggressive traders) which should be somewhere around 1679 0r 1680. More conservative traders look to buy close to the Daily dot at 1675. Target one is 1699, then 1702, and thereafter 1734. Stop goes under the 5/9 up at 1662. I like the way the daily, weekly, and monthly PLDots are lining up. Video

Update 3/28/12: @GC First off, "My Bad" for not specifying the June contract and instead giving numbers for the April contract, which is hard upon first notice day and we should not have been trading it. The structural illustration in the movie made it easy to translate to June numbers, but maybe those traders who stood aside today because of this confusion were the real winners, since the trade obviously did not work out. Our aggressive traders were long two contracts but went "duck and cover" when they saw the hourly advance fail spectacularly and start to break the daily PLdot, exiting at 1672. Conservative traders, who hold to the "set it and forget it" style of trading, took it in the neck today when our stop was hit. Such is life in the fast lane. Like me Mama used to say, "Tomorrow is another day."Video

 Buy USDJPY at the open (aggressive traders) currently at 82.84; conservative traders buy closer to the daily dot at 82.68. Stop goes below the dot at 82.58, and the first target being 83.48 and the second target 83.98. Let's see if we can ride this Yen weakness for a while. Video BONUS trades: the AUDJPY has a similar trade configuration; aggressive traders could get aboard at the open, stop below the 6/5and 1-1 Low; and target the 5/2d and then the 5/9d. Also, consider buying GC on a dip; aggressive traders only look to buy at the envelope top with a stop below the 6/5 and daily dot, target the top of nearby resistance and then the 5/2 and if we get lucky the 5/9. As we all know, Gold can move quickly and with a vengeance and so be careful here and and watch the flow!

Update 3/28/12: USDJPY Well it was not to be, at least not today. We ticked down through our stop and chopped around for the rest of the day. This market still looks bullish to me, after all we're still above the Weekly and daily dot, but we stand aside for the moment--and watch for our entry opportunity. Update 3/27/12: USDJPY So far so good; Hold long. Both aggressive and conservative traders got filled and are aboard. We came close to the first target today and prospects are positive for tomorrow. Conservative traders keep the original target of 83.48 and aggressive traders move their first target to 83.68. Stop for both can be moved to the conservative break-even point of 82.68.

 Sell AUDJPY at the open (aggressive traders), probably somewhere near 86.21, but get aboard in any case. More conservative traders can sell at 86.41, near Monday's daily dot. Targets are 85.05 near the 5/2 up, then 84.72 which is near the weekly 1-1 low, and then 84.42, the weekly 5/2. Stop goes at 86.77 above the daily 1-1 high. Video

Update 3/26/12:AUDJPY Not a successful trade, and not a lot of easy exits ahead of the stop, so we take the loss in stride and move forward. The good news is that this is pretty strong evidence that the yen weakness has returned, and this has some promise then for the resumption of a longer-term trend. Target for those who were nimble enough to reverse is the weekly envelope top.

 Sell USDJPY at 82.59 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 82.82 just below the daily dot. First target is 82.13 near the weekly PLDot, and then 81.45 above the daily 5/2 up. Stop goes above the 6/5 at 83.24. I see some continued weakness here; we will need to work through this congestion before the yen weakness can take hold again. Video Other thoughts: Those so inclined might play for continued weakness in @ES and AUDJPY, we had a big down day but one could probably sell resistance with the idea that these moves might continue a bit to the downside. Other dollar-sensitive commodities also show weakness, but I am uncertain about shorting gold, crude and corn right here.

Update 3/23/12: USDJPY Yes, a nice trade again today. Both aggressive and conservative traders were filled and exited at the first target. Those so inclined might look for additional weakness in USDJPY in the coming days, the chart still looks weak, and target 2 is likely achievable, but for Track Record purposes we're out and banking the money.

 Sell AUDJPY at market (currently 87.15) as an aggressive trade or more conservatively at 87.58 or better. Target is 86.55, just off the 5/2 extension, and then just off the weekly Live EBot at 86.32. Stop goes in at 87.98 above the dot and -1 high. The Yen will resume its weakness one of these days and this cross will head higher but in the meantime we have this retracement first, based on putative Chinese economic weakness and Australian government mining tax policies I suppose. But whatever the fundamentals the chart looks clear. Video

Update 3/22/12: AUDJPY Good trade for our aggressive traders; we caught most of the sharp overnight break. Especially nimble traders might have re-shorted after hitting our second target and ridden it down to the 5/9u, but we'll not assume that happened. For the Track Record we're out at 86.32 and happy for the profit, and no tears please if money was left on the table. There's always another day and another trade.

 Sell @ES at 1401 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively just off the 1-1 high at 1405. Stop goes above the presumptive dotted line at 1409; first target is 1390.50, second target is 1381 just above the weekly live dot. We are in a Weekly exhaust formation, and the Daily is rolling over nicely, and the Monthly does not contradict this. So... we take the trade, looking for congestion entrance down. Video

Update 3/22/12: @ES OK, an excellent trade! Both aggressive and conservative traders were filled on 3/21; on 3/22 conservative traders are out at the first target and aggressive traders held for the second target but missed it on two occasions and so are out at 1387, a price they had multiple opportunities to take after missing target and with the close approaching. Update 3/21/12: @ES So far so good; hold short.

 Buy @GC a bit off the 6/5 at 1664 (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 1658 just off the daily PLDot. Target is just below the 5/2 extension at 1678 and thereafter a bit shy of the the Daily 5/9 and weekly PLDot area at 1697. Stop goes below the daily dot and 1-1 low at 1653. Some conservative traders might stay long and just ride this trade but since we think Gold has a lot of upside potential here we are re-setting the trade at a somewhat better price and seeing if we can keep the good times a-rolling. Gold is very volatile but as my favorite hockey player says, "100 percent of the shots you don't take don't go in the net." So let's give it a go. Video

Update 3/20/12: @GC Well doggone it, that shot just didn't go in the net! We were stopped out; I am still thinking the gold market has a lot of upside potential but it certainly didn't happen today.

 Buy EURUSD at 1.3148 or better, just off the envelope top (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 1.3123, just off the 6/5. Stop goes in at 1.3061, and the target is 1.3247 near the 5/2d and the area of the weekly PLDot. Thereafter the next target would be 1.3364, approaching the 5/9d and the weekly ETop. Video

Update 3/19/12: EURUSD Aggressive traders were filled at their specified entry point and exited at target. Short and sweet!

 Buy @GC at 1653 or better (aggressive traders)just off the 5/1, or more conservatively at 1645. Stop goes below the 1-1 low at 1637 and the target is up at the daily envelope top, and then the weekly PLDot, and then... and then ... and then ..the weekly and monthly envelope tops of course, i.e the heavens above. We're playing the monthly 5/9 up (1626) as strong support, and so it well may be. But I have a newly re-energized respect for this most dangerous of markets and so we have a tighter stop and will rely on flow-based entries for aggressive traders if price takes off. Video Other interests: Sell @CL (we got a really *nice* trade today), sell @US, buy AUDJPY.

Update 3/19/12: @GCAggressive traders saw how close we came to the ETop and exited shortly thereafter at the 1-1high at 1667.20; conservative traders are openly weeping at missing the ETop by only a few cents but are exiting at the close of the day and taking profits here -- a good trade nevertheless. Taking profits now is fielder's choice however; I believe Gold will be going higher and a good case can be made for holding long. Update 3/16/12: @GC Both aggressive and conservative traders are aboard, and the day is closing pretty strongly. On balance I say hold long since the upside potential is very large. However aggressive traders have $2k+ and Conservative traders have $1.5K in the trade already and they may wish to take profits here. My preference is to move the stop up a bit to under the 1-1 low and see if we can hang on until the market moves higher, and so for track record purposes that is what I am doing.

 Sell @CL at market -- currently 105.43 -- (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 106.00; target is 103.90 into weekly and daily key support; stop should go above the daily dot and 1-1 high at 106.60. I see weakness all about here, and the dots are a-pushing on weekly, and daily basis, with the monthly dot beckoning for a dot refresh. Fundamentals are weak as well, shown in term structure backwardization. Video Bonus trade: look to sell the EURUSD anywhere under the daily dot, and the closer to it the better. Also: watching gold carefully as it deals with the Monthly 5/9 up. That would be a buy, no?

Update 3/15/12: @CL A quick and happy resolution to this trade with excellent profits. Aggressive and conservative entries both hit and filled, thus aggressive trader rides with two contracts and the conservative with one; both are out at target on this quick break. Nice!!

 Sell @US at 139'080 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 139'150. We're seeing a breakdown on news from the Fed and this from a very extended congestion, and so this move could have some legs. The problem is how to get aboard at a decent price. Target for now is 137'110 and the stop should go in at 140'120. Video Bonus trades: Buy @ES at 1387.75 or better, or if aggressive go market; target 1414; buy AUDJPY at 87.10-87.25, stop at 86.66 and target at 88.83.

Update 3/14/12: @US Market gaped lower and broke in a major way; Price never retraced to our entrance and so we grabbed our short entry on the fly as a directional trade. We hit the first target of 137'11 and blew through it with hardly so much as a tip oft he hat, and so the next level of support comes into play. Second target level of 5/9 up hit and we're out. The intrepid can reverse fro a short refresh bounce but I would not be surprised if the downward action continues in the near future. See the video for discussion and specifics. Video

 Buy EURUSD at market on open which is showing as 1.3152 here (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 1.3121 above the daily Ebot and in daily support. Target would be the Daily Envelope top for starters, then more reasonably just off the the Weekly PLDot at 1.3243. Stop goes in at 1.3103. I see some congestion here as the dust settles from the Greek drama. Video

Update 3/13/12: EURUSD Not a lot to say here. Decisively stopped out, and not any place to make a clean flow-based exit either. So we take our lumps.

 Buy @GC just off the 6/5 and ETop at 1710 (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 1698 just above the daily PLDot. Stop goes below the daily dot at 1690, and the targets are 1724, then 1736, and 1746, just off the resistance areas of the 5/2, 5/2 extension, and 5/9 respectively. I give three targets because this is impressive strength we're seeing in gold coupled with a definitive turn-around and breakout and if we do get aboard a powerful move we don't want to be kicked out prematurely. Video

Update 3/13/12: @GC Not a happy camper here. Things looked good for a while but then fell apart decisively. Conservative traders stopped out at 1692, per stop below, for a loss of $600. Aggressive traders had the cold comfort of being able to limit their loss somewhat through a flow-based exit at 1700, for a loss of $800. By no means is this a pretty picture. Video Update 3/12/12: @GC We did get filled with the conservative as well as the aggressive trade entries; the former is in slight profit, the latter somewhat under water. This is another situation where the chart structure is intact but I am nervous as an alley cat and want to tighten up the stop. And yet I don't see any great place to put my stop. I move it to 1692. The hourly chart shows a market winding up for a bigger move but I am not sure what direction; I lay my bet on the long side but hedge the stop on the downside. Like many situations in trade, no perfect answer here.

 Buy USDJPY above the live daily dot, at 81.40 or better (aggressive traders ) or more conservatively at 81.25 or better, just off the 6/5. Stop goes in at 80.02 below the weekly live dot, and the target is 82.16 near the 5/2 and then 82.80 near the 5/9 area. Tomorrow is a big report day as you know and so there will be some volatility, if that is not in your comfort zone then stand aside until after the 8:30 a.m. ET report action settles down. Yen weakness has resurfaced with a vengeance and it is possible this trade could go on for a while. Video

Update 3/19/12: USDJPY OK stopped out at 83.09; we book an excellent profit despite not getting the optimal target price. Update 3/16/12: USDJPY I say hold long; We are experiencing a retracement but have a good profit locked in. The target remains 84.44. If we reach it, great; if not then we stop out at a good profit. Update 3/15/12: USDJPY Hold long. Maybe this move is over but I'm betting the other way. In any case our stop protects a good profit. Update 3/14/12: Excellent bullish action in our favor. We hit our first target and will hold for new target of 84.44. Move stop to 83.09 under the 1-1 low. One possible way to play a market such as this is to take partial profits at targets and then add back to the position on retracements. But so far our retracements have been tiny! Video Update 3/13/12: USDJPY Hold Long. This is working out nicely. Stop was not hit and the up-move picked up after the Fed minutes were released. New first and second targets: 83.57 near the 5/2 and then 83.97 near the 5/9d. Move stop to 82.18 underneath the 1-1 Low Update 3/12/12: USDJPY Hold Long. I am less than completely comfortable with this trade and yet the chart looks OK. We did close inside the weekly envelope yet on the other hand the daily C-wave is intact. Yet on the third hand we have dots swinging against us. Maybe the best solution is to hold long with a tight stop just below the Daily dot at 81.90. Update 3/9/12: USDJPY The market moved aggressively upwards without hitting our aggressive entry and so we got aboard on a flow-based entry on the fly at 81.82. Yen weakness looks to continue and so hold long. We blew through our first target like a knife through butter and approached the second target. Given this strength I say move the target to Monday's 5/2 at 83.30; move your "911" stop to 80.45. Video

 Sell @US at 141'180 or just go market at the open (aggressive traders) or more conservatively sell at 141'250 or better. Target is just off the 5/9 up at 140'100, but we might hesitate a bit at the bottom of the Daily envelope at 141'000 which can be seen as an interim target. Stop goes in at 142'020. We see strengthening employment numbers looming, a lessening of the Greek malaise, etc., and the treasury cycle seems to be eroding to the downside. We shall see, as the saying goes. Video

Update 3/9/12: US And we're out at target. Update 3/8/12: @US Aboard with our aggressive entry at the open. No reason not to hold short for target. Big report tomorrow means some volatility is likely but I suspect we will make the target number. Move stop to breakeven.

 Sell EURUSD at 1.3125 or better (aggressive traders) or at 1.3163 just under the 6/5 for more conservative traders. Stop goes in at 1.3204 and the target is ultimately just north of the monthly envelope bottom in the 1.2850 area, but with interim targets at 1.3050 and 1.2970. We've had a great run in the EURUSD but the slope of the daily envelope says we're not yet done. This could change of course but for the moment that's the call. Video

Update 3/8/12: Well that question was answered promptly and decisively. We were stopped out at 1.3181. Update 3/7/12: EURUSD Well this move would seem to be over; we are aboard short with both conservative and aggressive entries, and the average of the two is about where the market is now; thus aggressives are breakeven and conservatives have a small profit. My inclination is to hold short but move the target up to a likely nearby support level and lower the stop considerably. Thus: new target is: 1.3120 and new stop is: 1.3181. If the Greeks mess up again however we will see a strong continuation to the downside and aggressive traders should be prepared for that possibility.

 Buy USDCAD at .9925 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at .9911 or better. Target is 1.0020 and thereafter 1.0067. Stop goes below the dot at .9886. We're seeing some real strength today, and will see if we can get aboard. Video Additional Suggestions: Look at the strength in Corn; Gold also looks interesting from a long perspective. And the Yen strength is particularly noticeable in the AUDJPY, so some might wish to sell this Forex Cross for a brief retracement to the weekly dot.

Update 3/6/12: USDCAD Well we had the right idea anyway. Price took off to the upside and did not retrace sufficiency for us to get aboard with either aggressive or conservative entries, thus we have a directional trade on our hands. We take the entrance from the close of the third hourly bar in our direction, .9953. e hit the target of 1.0020 and are out, banking $669.00. Video Update 3/6/12: Other Suggested Trades Corn held it's ground well in the face of other commodity weakness, so we take note. Gold... well I hope nobody took my advice there; but the Yen! Look how nicely the AUDJPY made a retracement to the weekly PLDot and then to the weekly Envelope Bottom; Picture perfect! None of these trades go in the records however as they were merely suggestions and not specified bonus trades.

 Buy @ES at 1366 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 1363.75. Target is 1375 and then 1384, and the stop goes in at 1358. I'm looking at the generally bullish tone as we grind upward. Video

Update 3/5/12: Annoyingly the low of the day was our stop price. Conservative traders are out at that stop for a small loss. Aggressive traders were out with their two contracts for a loss of $686.50 but re-entered with two contracts on the following hourly bar at 1360, and are out at day's close for a small net win of $212.50. This trade is looking sick and so we move on to play another day in another time.

 Buy @GC 1714 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively 1703 off the 1-1 low; target is 1733 which is the daily 1-1 high but could go higher to 1739-41 so be prepared if the move develops. Stop? well, these be volatile times and so put a stop at 1696 but watch the flow. Fun times, eh what? Video BONUS TRADES: Consider a short in Crude Oil 109.75 (aggressive) with a target of the daily dot and then the 1-1 low. ALSO one could probably buy @US since it has reached congestion target and seems interested in moving back up again. ALSO AUDJPY is looking very strong and could be bought. See the updates on yesterday's bonus trades as well.

Update 3/2/12: The gold trade did not work out and we exit for a small loss to look for a better entry long another day. Update 3/2/12: BONUS TRADES @CL we missed the technical entry by a few cents but take a flow-based entry at the third bar of flow in the trade direction entry at 108.71; hit target at 106.74 (1-1 low) and we're out for a profit of $1,917. @US bought at the open 141'20 and out at the close 141'130 for a profit of $781. AUDJPY in at the open out at the close, for 11 pips or profit of $134, essentially a scratch. Total of bonus trades for the day: $2,832.

 Sell USDCAD on open or at market shortly thereafter (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at .9916 or better, which is near the daily live dot and weekly envelope bottom. Target is .9765 near the weekly 5/9 up. The strength in the CAD comes in the face of general dollar strength as well, which I find impressive as well as seeing the technical reasons for this down move. Stop goes at .9965 above the 6/5. Video BONUS TRADES: Lots going on today in the volatile markets as we saw mucho surprise activity. Something is a-foot, and so we are here to help things along by taking advantage of whatever moves we can. Suggestions for those who want to participate: sell @US (June contract now)market with a target of weekly envelope bottom area; sell @ES market with a target of weekly PLDot; sell EURUSD at market along the lines of our existing bonus trade of two days ago, or adding to that position. Good trading!

Update 3/6/12: We hit our revised target in EURUSD and are out. A premature exit I know but I got a little nervous, an old habit....sorry 'bout that. Bonus trade profits: $1444 from EURUSD and $1531 from @US, minus $500 loss on @ES total $2471. Update 3/5/12: USDCAD Aggressive traders were stopped out with their one contract at .9920 for a small loss. No trade for conservative traders. Update 3/5/12: EURUSD Move target to 1.3178 and stop to 1.3259. This trade is getting long in the tooth and so we move to protect winnings. Update 3/2/12: USDCADHold short. Move first target to .9857; move inside the envelope casts a shadow on the potential here. Update 3/2/12: BONUS TRADES EURUSD holding short from entry of 1.3322 for second target of 1.3118 Monthly PLD. Update 3/1/12: USDCAD Hold short for target. Things are progressing reasonably nicely. Move stop to .9920. Update 3/1/12: @US Bonus Trade We entered at the open 141.210 and closed out at the 5/2 up 140'040, which was in our opinion reasonably close to the Weekly Envelope bottom target. (Note we specified Weekly Ebot "area".) Thus we book a bonus profit of $1,531. Update 3/1/12: @ES Bonus Trade This did not work out and we assume traders are out of this trade. If you entered at the open and exited at the close you lost $500. Update 3/1/12: EURUSD Bonus Trade Hold short. Those who are short from two days ago are especially happy. First target 1.3250, but might eventually work much lower, witness the monthly PLD and EBot.

 Sell USDJPY 80.44 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively just off the 1-1 high at 80.79. Initial stop goes at 81.46, targets are 80.05, then 79.91, 79.77, and 79.18, should we get there. We are in an exhaust pattern, the question is if we will break the congestion block level or no, or continue the weekly c-wave instead. Video

Update 2/29/12: Exit the trade. We got caught in the sudden turn-around caused by Bernanke and the Europeans, and so the best loss is the first loss. Aggressive traders took the flow-based exit at the close of the first huge bar against us; conservative traders exited at the time of this writing a few minutes after the close. We can't win 'em all, folks. Video

 Buy @C at 641 or better (aggressive traders) or below the daily dot and above the 1-1 low at 637.5 (conservative traders). Stop goes at 632.5 and the target is just this side of the 5/9d at 656. Note the envelope trundling across the page looking like congestion but the dots and live dots holding, and a small trend developing, and all this in the face of what some call bearish news. Furthermore we have higher time period dots in place to push up. Video UPDATE NOTE: My comments refer to the March contract in corn, and this is OK for the moment but volume is building towards the rollover into May Corn and those who want to play if safe can initiate their trades in the May contract; if the trade develops in the March contract and has some legs you would need to roll over on the 29th of February into the May contract. The chart patterns are the same of course, and there is about a 3.75 cent premium on the May corn prices. Bonus Trade: Sell EURUSD 1.3425, or more conservatively at 1.3448; target 1.3244 and then 1.3125; stop at 1.3510. Could it be that the problems with Greece are not really totally 100 percent completely resolved forever? Horrors!

Update 3/6/12: EURUSD OK we're out at the latest target of 1.3175, a bit premature I know but caution (or, ahem, fear) prevailed. Accounting for the bonus trade: Conservative traders profit of $2,040, aggressive profit on two contracts $5,230, corn trade a scratch, total $7,270. How wonderful life when your right! Update 3/5/12: EURUSD Keep stop where it is and move target up to 1.3175, I am growing cautious. Update 3/2/12: EURUSD Bonus This trade is fabulous; conservative traders are aboard from 1.3448, aggressive traders from there and a second contract at 1.3425. Conservative traders exited at 1.3244 for a profit of $2040 and aggressive traders are holding both for the second target of 1.3125, and should move stop to 1.3245. Quite wonderful so far. Update 3/2/12:@C Finally in the end we were stopped out of our corn trade st a scratch. Oh well, so it goes. Update 3/1/12: @C Hold long. A bit of chop here but still seems bullish to me. Note the strength is beans. Update 2/29/12: @C Hold long. Corn is most impressive in the face of this general commodity weakness With gold down hugely Corn and Soybeans hold their bullish posture, and that speaks volumes to me. Update 2/29/12: UPDATE ON EURUSD BONUS TRADE: Hold short; we have a nice trade developing here with a chance of reaching target. Move your stop to 1.3435 just above the 1-1 high, which is close to break-even. Update 2/28/12: Trade entry price was not triggered on either the March or the May contract, but the direction was correct and so we got aboard as price moved through the Envelope top at 649 (May contract). Move stop to break-even and he May contract target is 669 and then the Monthly 5/2 at 687. If you're not aboard this trade and wish to be so, consider a long at 654 on the May contract. If you are unfamiliar with roll-over issues, see the CME website's new "Pace of the Roll" tool. Video

 Buy USDCAD just off the PLDot at 0.9986 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively just north of the 1-1 low at 0.9972. Stop goes below the envelope at 0.9952 and the first target is the 5/9 down at 1.005 and then the weekly 5/9 down at 1.0100. Video

Update 2/27/12: An almost perfect trade, in that we got the aggressive entry and proceeded to target -- that is just one pip shy of the target. Aggressive traders have to deal with such matters though, and we exited at the close of the following bar (see closing video below) booking a profit of $480 instead of the full $640 we would have made if the target had been triggered to the tick, or the $1420 aggressive traders would have picked up had they added a second contract at the conservative entry. There's lots of dough to be made for those who see what is occurring and take action -- and the DG support and resistance levels are playing out wonderfully in these Forex markets. Video

 Buy EURUSD at 1.3328 or better (aggressive traders) or 1.3307 or better for more conservative traders, with a stop at 1.3263 under the daily dot and a target of 1.3483 and the 1.3523. This was a pretty assertive breakout and we look to get aboard the move, buying at the ETop and/or the 6/5. Coming out of a lengthy congestion like this we may see some good continuation. Video

Update 2/24/12: We called the correct direction but the specific entry was not triggered, thus it is a directional trade; we went long on the close of the third bar of positive flow, i.e. when we could tell definitively what was going on. We're out at the target, which did trigger perfectly. Not as big a trade as we had hoped for but we're happy with the win and book the profits in good spirits. Video

 Sell EURUSD at the market at open (aggressive traders) or at 1.3269 or better just under the 1-1 high for conservative traders. Targets are 1.3187, then 1.3157 and 1.3074. Stop goes about resistance at 1.3296 Seems like we should be cycling down... certainly there seems to be little will in the market to move higher in this situation. Video

Update 2/23/12: Well no ifs, ands, or buts, we are quite wrong on this one. Color me annoyed.

 Sell AUDJPY at 85.19 or better (aggressive traders) approaching the daily PLDot or more conservatively at 85.49 just under the 1-1 high. Stop goes above the 6/1 at 85.89 and targets are first at 84.45 and then at 84.04. We're in an exhaust formation and the daily is rolling over in a very pronounced way and so we'll see how this one develops. Video

Update 2/23/12: It was not to be and we were stopped out. Update 2/22/12: Hold Short. Both aggressive and conservative traders were filled, but we have not yet seen a lot of downside price action as yet. Move the first target to 84.63, second target to 83.71, and the stop can stay where it is.

 Buy @GC on the open (aggressive traders) or closer to the daily PLDot at 1731 or better (this is also about at the weekly PLDot). Gold has been holding support well and with the dollar showing some weakness I think we could see a move to the upside out of congestion; note as well the dots together all set for a joint push upwards. Stop goes below the dot at 1724 and the target is 1758 near the daily 5/9d. Video

Update 2/22/12: Well our unofficial add-on "bonus trade" paid rich dividends for those traders who participated. In at 1753, out at the close (1777.70) for a solid gain of almost $2,500 Video Update 2/21/12: Outstanding gold trade. Aggressive traders were long from the evening session open; conservative traders just missed an entry; the low was 1732.4 and the conservative entry was slated for 1731. Just goes to show you how close the Drummond numbers come. This market is very bullish and it broke the 5/9d at day's end. Those who did not exit at target can hold long; others interested in getting aboard might look for a retracement to the 1752-1754 level. But for the purposes of our track record we're out and booking the profits. Video

 Sell @US at 142'110 or better (aggressive traders) or 142'210 or better for conservative traders (at the PLDot). Stop goers above the 5/9 d at 143'050 and he first target is 141'150 the 5/2 up, and then 140'040 the weekly 5/9. Wish I had sold this yesterday but we had our eyes elsewhere. Let's see if we can get aboard now... Video

Update 2/20/12: Price took off in our direction but did not hit our entry points. Normally this would then go in the books as a "directional trade," but there was no good place to get aboard due to the rapidity of the move and if one did go short after the first hourly bar then the trade turns out to be a scratch so far. Thus this goes in the books as a non-trade and we'll look to get short another time. Things do look very bearish however.

 Sell EURUSD at the open (aggressive traders) or at 1.3183 just off the ETop and 1-1 high (conservative traders) with a stop at 1.3224 and a downside target of 1.3035 and then 1.2913. Seems that this glorious sunshine from the Grand Greek Resolution is a bit blinding. We'll try a short. Instructive to my mind: the rally stalled at the PLDot. Video

Update 2/20/12: We could not have been more wrong and were stopped out as the Chinese lowered their reserve requirements over the weekend, and Europe did not totally self-destruct. We had moved the stop to minimize the damage of such an occurrence, and now we stand aside. Conservative traders scratch; aggressive traders take a smallish loss. I still have my doubts about Europe however. Update 2/17/12: Hold short. Yes, we had a bit of a rally and we thus were granted entries for both conservative and aggressive traders. But the rally fizzled, and leaves us more-or-less-sorta-kindda where we were at yesterday's close. this is not bullish action folks, and with the deep divisions in Europe, chances are high that any little thing can cause negative emotions to flourish once again. Besides, technically we're below the weekly and monthly dots, and the weekly envelope is rolling over. Hang tight. Monday is a US holiday but the forex markets are global. Move stop to 1.3179 and first target to 1.3077. Second target stays as is.

 Buy AUDJPY at market (aggressive traders) or at the PLDot 83.60 or better, for more conservative traders. Stop goes below the 5/9 at 83.40 and the target is the weekly 5/2 d at 85.02. Video

Update 2/16/12: A very successful trade. We got aboard with both conservative and aggressive entries and rode it all day to very, very near the target, just a few ticks shy. Now we see the hourly start to fall off a bit and so we take our money and exit on close at 84.88. Video

 Sell @GC at 1723 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively just off the 1-1 hi at 1729. Stop goes at 1736 and the first target is 1710 and then 1710 and then just north of the 5/9up at 1694. The dollar is strong and gold is languishing; let's see if we can pick up some of this weakness tomorrow. Video

Update 2/16/12: We closed this trade out yesterday when we were stopped out but just note the nature of the action today; gold did achieve the target before reversing sharply. Furthermore note the nature of the price action when the stop was hit, and my comment in the original movie that the real stop should have been above the 5/9. Had I only listened to myself. Anyway, lessons learned, and that's what trading is all about. Video Update 2/15/12: Gold was not ready for the move we anticipated yesterday and so we take our loss and stand aside. The PLDots are still close together and we await a larger move but the direction is for the moment uncertain.

 Sell EURUSD at 1.3205 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 1.3228; stop goes at 1.3295 and the first target is 1.3095 and the second target is 1.3045. Now that the Greeks have voted the reality sets in.... time to "sell the news"? Technically the daily PLDot is rolling over, we're in weekly zone 4 and the monthly PLdot is breaking. Video

Update 2/16/12: A further update to our suggested add-on "bonus Trade": The entry on Feb 15 was spot-on correct, and the trade moved to target today, Feb 16. Again, note the strong reversal out of the lows BUT NOT BEFORE THE TARGET WAS HIT! We call this kind of action "fulfilling the geometry" and it is a characteristic of Drummond Geometry analysis. Video Update 2/14/12: This trade worked out perfectly. Our aggressive traders captured virtually the whole day's range. We hit the fist target and are out; those who wish to play in this market again tomorrow for the follow-on downside action might consider re-shorting in the 1.3166 to 1.3154 area with a target of 1.2982 or so. Video

 Sell @us on open (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 142'270 or better. We're looking for a congestion action move down to the lower confines of congestion, first target being just above the the envelope bottom at 141'150, then just above the 5/9 up at 140'300. Stop goes above the nearby resistance at 143'070. Video

Update 2/13/12: Exit at market for what we'll call a scratch. Conservative traders made a few ticks; aggressive traders lost a few ticks, so the day was more or less a wash, and that's how it goes in the books. We had the direction right but we just didn't get any movement to speak of, very choppy action. Video

 Buy @US at the open (aggressive traders) or at 141'060 or better (conservative traders. Stop goes below nearby daily support at 140'210. The hourly action after auction results on Thursday afternoon lead me to believe this is an exhaust down into the weekly 5/9 up and weekly/monthly envelope bottoms. SO far not a lot of supporting evidence except for that striking hourly up move, so we place a tight stop. The first target is the weekly PLdot, and then we'll see; this could be setting up for a bit of refresh and then a renewed leg down. Video

Update 2/10/12: Conservative entry not triggered but the day played out wonderfully for the aggressive trader. Price hit the weekly PLDot to the tick and our aggressive trader exited there, with an exit price of 142'300. Next move is likely to the downside again, as we are up against weekly, monthly pldots and quarterly Etop, and tons of space below us. Video

 Buy EURUSD on the open (aggressive traders) or at 1.3230 or better (conservative traders. We've had a day for this breakout to consolidate and it is looking OK, and so we "go-with" the move and see what develops, getting aboard a monthly dot push we hope. Stop goes at 1.3167 and the target is 1.3490, the monthly E-top. Video

Update 2/10/12: Stopped out... seems the Greeks don't always do what they say they will and this bothers the heck out of the stern Germans. Who knew? Aggressive traders exited on sharp adverse flow as price broke the PLDot at 1.3240 Video Update 2/9/12: So far so good; we're aboard with both conservative and aggressive entrances. Move stop to 1.3198. the action is not wildly bullish but we do have a solid energies in weekly c-wave, monthly dot push. Let's see how things develop tomorrow.

 Sell @CL at 99.00 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 99.44 or better. Stop goes at 100.05 above nearby resistance. Target is 97.54 and then 96.77. We're playing for the exhaust move here, retracement to the PLdot or better. Crude is reacting to the dollar in the face of bearish fundamentals which have not changed since yesterday. Video

Update 2/8/12: Wow, talk about annoying. The market stopped us out by 4 cents and moved back down in our anticipated direction. The nimblest of traders might have taken action and re-shorted after this "poke" stop it, but the reversal was pretty sudden and the day finished even with any possible aggressive re-entry that we could justify. The exhaust formation is technically in place and tomorrow we should see lower prices, and so if still short one could hold for a new target of 98.35 and then eventually the envelop bottom. But for our TR purposes we take the loss and stand aside. Drat. Video

 Buy USDCAD at .9937 or better (aggressive traders) or at .9927 or better for conservative traders. Stop goes at .9897 nd the upside target is 1.0053, just below he weekly PLDot. I'm banking on the move inside the envelope on three time-frames and the position of price vis-a-vis the envelope on weekly and monthly charts. Video

Update 2/7/12: No Trade. In the early going we had the direction correct but in the end it was a choppy day and neither aggressive nor conservative entries were triggered. Stand aside.

 Sell @CL at the open on Sunday night (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 98.34 o.r better. Stop goes above the nearby resistance and also above today's 5/9 down, at 98.99. First target is 96.53 just north of the 1-1 low; thereafter just above the top of monthly support at 94.60. Rationale for the trade: weakish rally in the face of strong bullish news that markedly affected other risk markets. We should have seen something better in CL than just a PLdot refresh, but we didn't. Thus, this market is weaker than it might at first appear. Video

Update 2/6/12: In at the open and hit target; we're out at 96.53, booking a nice profit of $1,210 on this short term trade. Now we stand aside. Likely next move is a refresh to weekly and monthly PLDot.

 Sell EURUSD at 1.3173 or better (aggressive traders), which is the 6/1 down; conservative traders look for a better entry at 1.3196, just off the 1-1 high. Stop goes above the nearby at 1.3270, and targets are at 1.3086, then 1.3047, and then 1.2956.Video

Update 2/3/12: This congestion-action trade worked perfectly! Both aggressive and conservative traders were filled at the predicted levels, and aggressive traders added one additional contract at the conservative entry. Target was hit near the lower confines of congestion and we're out.

 Buy USDJPY on open or at a better market price (aggressive traders), conservative traders buy at the Ebot or a tad above at, say, 76.10. Stop goes below yesterday's low at 75.94 and the target is the weekly PLD at 76.99 for starters and then the heavens and stars above. Video

Update 2/9/12: Second target hit for aggressive traders and we're out. Update 2/8/12: First targets hit and conservative traders are out, aggressive traders have taken partial profits and hold the rest for second target. Move stop to 76.75. Update 2/7/12: Hold long. Move stop to 76.48. Aggressive traders set new target at 77.09 and if hit take off one contract and let the second contract ride to second target of 77.25. Conservative traders keep original target of 76.99. Update 2/6/12: Hold long. Technically the issue hinges on the daily PLD garnering enough strength to break the weekly resistance at the weekly PLdot. I think this will occur but it might take a day or two. Of course the Japanese Central Bank is under a lot of pressure to help us out on this trade. Update 2/3/12: Hold Long. We got our big report move and now aggressive traders are aboard with 2 contracts, conservative traders with one. Move your stop to break-even for both aggressive and conservative traders at 76.14, and let's see what develops. Update 2/2/12: Hold Long; A slow-moving market until it ain't, and then watch out! Big report tomorrow so make sure your stop is in place and be prepared to re-enter if the volatility comes to visit but proves transient and the up-move reasserts itself. Video

 Sell @CL at 99.10 or better (aggressive traders), or more conservatively at 99.40 or better. Target is 96.95 and the stop should go at 100.86. We're looking at widening contango in the term structures, denoting good supply thus weakness, and what sorta seems like a dollar getting ready to turn up, on top of the weekly and daily dots conversing, new monthly dot shift, and a most convincing rejection of higher price today. Let's see where it goes. Video On the watch-list: @US, for sure, although it is premature for a short so far. And USDJPY of course, what on earth is going on there.

Update 2/2/12: For those who followed my ad-hoc advice last night re the continuation of this @CL trade, you did very well; good entry in he neighborhood of the 6/5, exit at the 5/2 extension (which would be the second target). Not an "official" trade but a good illustration of how powerful the DG tools are: another $2K in hypothetical profits on this one.Video Update 2/1/12: We're very close to target and an excellent trade for both conservative and aggressive traders and so I am exiting at the close. Aggressive traders picked up a second contract at the conservative entry point. Video

 Sell @ES at or just below the daily dot at 1312 or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively just below the 1--1 high at 1316.50. Targets are 1300 and then 1284; stop goes above the 5/9 at 1322. Video Bonus Trade: You gotta love the action in gold, moving inside the envelope. Interested parties could sell gold up in here (at perhaps the 6/1 down), looking for congestion entrance down to 1691, which is the 5/9 and also 3 dots back.

Update 2/1/12: Oops. Stopped out. My bad for not protecting the open profit. See video. Video Update 1/31/12: We're aboard with both conservative and aggressive entries; hold short.

 Buy @US at 143'010 (aggressive traders) which is just north of the 6/5; conservative traders buy just above the daily dot at 142'200 or better. Stop goes below the 6/1 at 141'140 and the target is the Weekly Etop at 144'060. Video Bonus trade: buy USDCAD 1.0000, target weekly Ebot which is 2-3 daily dots back. Wild bonus trade: Sell @GC 1744. Note the weekly 5/9, the quarterly Etop, the daily collection of 5/2's, the Monthly 5/3 d. The only thing missing is any evidence that the market is in any way reacting to all this, thus a "taking it in the gut" trade idea, only for the well-capitalized who can also monitor intraday. Fun to watch though. Video

Update 1/30/12: We nailed the trade direction but our entrance did not get triggered, and so it goes in the books as a solid directional trade, hitting target at the weekly envelope top. (I had the correct target in the movie, Lord knows where I got the number 144'060 in the written comment, an obvious error on my part). Directional entry is dictated by the third bar of flow after the open,at 143'210, and exit at the W ET at 144'31. Bonus Trade Update 1/30/12: Delighted at the way the Gold trade worked out; entrance not triggered but we're seeing the expected play out. A continued bonus trade for today. Re USDCAD: Looks like we have the direction OK but no entry hit and not a hot market move so far.

 Sell @ES at 1322 or better (aggressive traders)or 1326 (conservative traders, with a stop at 1332 and targets at 1303 and then 1295. We've had a strong run up but the market is faltering an bit and I am betting on a refresh and a bit of congestion. Video Bonus Trade: Sell EURUSD at the Etop or just under the 1-1 high for a refresh to the weekly live ET or better.

Update 1/27/12: For a while it looked as if we might have a directional trade but no follow-through, so this goes in the books as a "no trade" with neither the aggressive nor the conservative entries hit. We stand aside. Our nonofficial bonus trade did get a good entry but then went nowhere and so if you were in this trade you likely exited with a scratch.

 Sell @CL at the open (aggressive traders) or just below the envelope top at 100.50 or better (conservative traders). First target is 98.05, second target is 96.10. Stop should go above the 5/2 extension at 100.88. I smell a rat again: weak dollar and bullish news but no big rally. Also the WTI term structures are showing bearish signs as contango widens. Video

Update 1/26/12: No lack of clarity on this trade; we wuz stopped out. We now stand aside, though I am not convinced that my trade direction idea is entirely wrong; had we not been stopped out I think I would be holding short.

 Buy @US at the open or better (aggressive traders) or more conservatively at 140'240, in Daily support but above the 1-1 low. Target is congestion entrance up, 2-3 dots back block level. We have daily and weekly exhaust formations, dots swinging, and pipes exhaust, all working against the currently strong envelope slope. Video Bonus trade: Buy @GC on open with a stop at 1653.

Update 1/25/12: Excellent trade, out with good profit at second target. What lies ahead? Not positive but I could see a cycle up. But we're standing aside for the moment, and happy for the day. Video Update Bonus Trade 1/25/12: Excellent move in gold for aggressive traders who were able to monitor during the day. Stopped out briefly and re-entered at 1663 for an excellent gain in the "Bonus Trade" category. Video

 Sell EURUSD at the open of the evening session 1.3025 or better as I write (aggressive traders) and more conservative traders can look to get short just shy of the 1-1 hi at 1.3067 or better. Stop goes above the 5/2 d at 1.3125 and our target is the weekly live dot a 1.2832 and eventually the bottom of the range at sat 1.2660. We're in a daily exhaust pattern at the moment and looking to see how that might play out tomorrow. Video

Update 1/25/12: Yikes! FMOC and Euro Zone hijinks generate a lot of volatility. Nimble aggressive traders did OK, out on flow-based exit on news. Video Update 1/24/12: Hold short. This is a bit of a close call since we closed a tad above the envelope but on balance I see a weaker day tomorrow. I could be wrong of course so tighten the stop a bit to 1.3098.

 Buy USDJPY at Monday's daily PLDot, which is 76.96. We're picking up here on the bonus trade recommended yesterday and on that trade we are already long with an aggressive entry; stop is below the 6/1 at 76.60; and the target for the moment is the Monthly ETop at 78.79. Video

Update 1/27/12: OK, they saw me coming. The market gave us the answer and we hit the stop for a small profit. Stand aside for the moment but I'll be looking to re-set a long at a lower level. Update 1/26/12: A tough trade management call. I say hold long and look to take profits at a little better price at the daily dot area at 77.59. See the video for the arguments pro and con.Video Update 1/25/12: Hold Long. We're seeing a natural reaction to HTP resistance (monthly 6/1 down, etc.) but the Daily momentum is strong and I anticipate higher prices ahead. Move stop to break-even and let life proceed. Very aggressive traders can add to the trade on open. Update 1/24/12: Hold long. Big day today, I see this trade as a significant reversal and the start of someth

 Sell @CL at 101.40 or better (aggressive traders) or 102.05 or better (conservative traders). I smell a rat here; weak dollar, Mideast tensions, but oil cannot rally and the dot crest challenge fails. So, we try selling. Stop should be pretty close at 102.28; first target is 96.24, the 5/9 up area. Video Bonus trades: Sell @US at the EBot to 6/5 area; Buy USDJPY at the 6/5 area, 77.00 or more conservatively just north of the PLdot at 76.90.

Update 1/20/12: Crude did not rally enough to trigger our conservative or aggressive entries but we had he direction right and we got aboard short at 100.60 and covered just above the 5/9 up at 98.10. Update @USDJPY: We're aboard at the aggressive entry at the 6/5 price, 77.01, and missed the conservative entry by 1 pip. Update @US: Again no trade trigger for the stated entry but we very much had the right idea and we're aboard short at 142'260. Hold for target 141'230.

 Sell USDCAD 1.0116 which is the current price (aggressive traders) or at 1.0133 or better (conservative traders) which is the weekly Envelope bottom. We're chasing the market just a bit here but methinks lower prices lie ahead. I like the triple dot push and the placement of the daily dot at the weekly envelope bottom bespeaks strong resistance. Place stop at 1.01685 and the first target is 1.0078.Video

Update 1/19/12: Conservative traders not filled, aggressive traders are out at target. Not a huge win but then that is normal when you are late on the trade and chasing the market a bit as we were on this one. Still, it's money in the bank and we like that. Video

 Buy AUDJPY 79.58 (aggressive traders), just off the 65 up; conservative traders look to buy at the dot or better, 79.31. Stop goes below the 5/9 up at 78.84; Target to the upside is 80.85, near the 5/2, thereafter the 5/9. Video

Update 1/20/12: Excellent day with our two targets hit for the aggressive trader with a total profit of $2721. This market is looking like it has legs though and so traders should be looking to get long again, perhaps in the neighborhood of Monday's 6/5 up. Update 1/19/12: Hold long; market is "making progress towards it's expected target" which is the very definition of good (up) flow. Aggressive traders got long a second contract at 79.87.Video Update 1/18/12: Hold long. Market is acting as expected so far.Video

 Sell @CL at the open (aggressive traders) or just above the daily PLdot near the 1-1 high at 100.12 or better (conservative traders) with a stop above the ETop at 100.70 and a first target of the Envelope bottom 97.96 and thereafter the 5/9 up at 97.01. Video Alternative/bonus trade: Sell @US in nearby daily resistance near the 1-1 high at 145-070, target the Envelope Bottom - 5/9 area, 144'030 to 143-280.

Update 1/19/12: Bonus Trade Out at target for a solid win of $2,300 Update 1/18/12: Bonus Trade Hold @US short from 145'070, move first target to 142'290. Video @ US update Update 1/17/12: Both conservative and aggressive traders stopped out; conservative traders at the "set it and forget it" stop of 100.70, aggressive traders taking a flow-based stop at 100.24 after multiple bars hourly c-wave against the trade while also breaking key resistance. Video

 Buy USDJPY just above The dot at 76.89 or better (aggressive traders) or at a better price of 76.75 or better (conservative traders. Stop goes at the 52up at 76.64 and the target would be the 5/9 at 77.30 or thereabouts. Video Video 2

Update 1/16/12: Hold long Update 1/17/12: Stopped out, and then the market returns in our predicted direction. Go figure.

 Buy EURUSD 1.2787 or better(aggressive traders) and conservative traders just north of the 1-1 low at 1.2744. Stop is 1.2698 and target is the heavens, with a first target at 1.2900 and thereafter 1.2950. Video

 Sell @US at the open or better(aggressive traders) and look for a bit better price just under the 1-1 high for conservative traders at 144'100. Note the successive lower highs in the recent cycles and we have a pldot crest challenge underway, with the 5/9 placed thereabouts and an exhaust formation in place. Target is the opposing 5/9 tomorrow, 142'050, and the stop is 144'220 above nearby resistance. Video

Update 1/13/12: Stopped out. Update 1/12/12: Hold Short. Not an open-and-shut case but on balance I hold short. Tighten the stop to 144'140. Aggressive traders might pick up another contract short if conservative traders are filled. Video Video And Also...

 Sell the USDCAD at 1.0175 (aggressive traders) or 1.0211 (conservative traders), with a target just north of the 5/2 u at 1.0082 and a stop at 1.0233. Video

Update 1/13/12: Stopped out in the general market reversal. Update 1/12/12: Hold Short; so far so good. Cancel the conservative entry and move the stop down a touch as indicated in the video to 1.0227. Video Update 1/11/12: Hold short. We just missed the conservative entry but we're aboard as an aggressive trader,looking for a pldot push to the downside --weekly and daily and monthly. Video